TeamPricingNewsletter
Resources
Blog
Events
Playbooks
Get Started
How It WorksTeamPricingNewsletter
Resources
BlogEventsPlaybooks
Get Started
← Back to blog
November 11, 2025
Content Strategy
Business Impact
Thought Leadership

Calculating your ‘marketing math’ to build for next year

The easy formula for making a budget make sense.

#
Marketing / Martech
Abby
Murray
Co-Founder + CEO
@ storyarb

Subscribe to
The Standard

By submitting this form, you agree to receive recurring marketing communications from storyarb at the email you provide. To opt out, click unsubscribe at the bottom of our emails. By submitting this form, you also agree to our Terms & Privacy Policy
You're in! Welcome to The Standard!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Read more

How to show up in AI search results

November 2, 2025

Make your brand famous

October 28, 2025

How to prove marketing ROI when you have a long sales cycle

October 22, 2025

How to nail the right tone of voice for your brand

October 10, 2025

Build your marketing plan around these 3 strategic pillars

October 3, 2025
share

You're staring at a blank budget sheet. 

Leadership wants to know: What's the plan? 

That’s a really big question to answer—plus, it’s not always clear which tactics had the biggest impact on your successes because they all played a part.

But everything you need to determine your budget is right in front of you. You just need to do a little backwards math.

As you build your budget, here’s my thinking on where you should double down—and where to cut.

‍

Key takeaways: The 3 things you need to know about expanding your content ecosystem 

  • Work backwards from revenue to build your budget 
  • Double down on channels that drive demos, not just traffic
  • Give your strategy time to work before pivoting

‍

Math-driven marketing in 4 steps

In my ~20 years in marketing, I’ve watched too many teams (mine included) burn through budget on tactics that looked good in case studies but didn't match their business model.

My math approach is the middle ground between a purely creative/brand/”vibes” focus (which leaves you with ROI-proving problems) and marketing that’s exclusively pushed forward by performance (and usually likes vanity metrics more than real signs of success, like demos).

The funnel math framework connects every piece of marketing activity to your revenue—and that’s what leadership wants to see. 
‍

Step 1: Map your revenue funnel from the bottom up 

Start with your 2026 revenue target, and work backwards to understand exactly how many demos, leads, and visitors you need. 

You’ll need to track:

  • Target revenue (split into new sales vs. expansion)
  • Average contract value 
  • Win rate (accounting for seasonality, decision-makers, discounts)
  • Demos/signups 
  • Site conversion rate 
  • Total traffic target

To walk through this together, let’s use an example. 

Say you’re Tyler, the head of marketing at a $12M ARR B2B SaaS company that sells project management software to operations teams. Leadership wants $4M in new revenue next year.

Now Tyler knows that to hit $4M:

→ She needs 100 customers,
→ which means 400 demos,
→ which means driving 13,333 high-intent visitors to her demo page,
→ which averages to 1,111 demo page visitors per month. 

And she has a clear number to defend her budget against. 

When leadership asks "Why do we need $500K for marketing?" she can show them: "Here’s the math: We need 400 demos. Here's how we get them." (Here are some tips on explaining marketing to your CFO.) 
‍

Step 2: Audit your traffic sources 

Now that Tyler knows she needs 13,333 demo page visits, she can look at which channels are already driving that outcome. That’s where her budget should be going. 

To arrive at this number, pull Google Analytics and HubSpot (or CRM) integration data for the past year, looking specifically at referral traffic to pricing/demo pages, not just homepage visits. Then, see which 3-5 channels are driving the most traffic to your demo page, and figure out the cost per demo from each channel. That’s where you double down. 

When Tyler pulls her 2025 data, she starts with homepage traffic (a vanity metric): 

  • LinkedIn: 3,200 visits (16.8%)
  • Organic search: 8,500 visits (44.5%)
  • Paid search: 2,100 visits (11%)
  • Email: 1,800 visits (9.4%)
  • Direct: 3,500 visits (18.3%)

When she filters to demo page traffic only, the whole picture changes:

Looking at these numbers, it’s obvious: email converts the most, and organic search drives the highest volume of visitors. LinkedIn only looks good when you’re talking about homepage traffic—it doesn’t drive a lot of demos. Plus, paid search is expensive and underperforming.

So, heading into 2026, Tyler decides to cut paid search budget by 50% and redirect that money into content that drives organic search traffic (which is already working), nurturing through email campaigns (best conversion rate), and testing more LinkedIn thought leadership (decent conversion rate, but low volume—there’s some room to grow).

I’d also suggest that she: 

Build in a buffer. If her company's revenue target is $4M, leave room to win. Target a higher demo volume to give buffer for a lower win rate (consider a conservative goal of 20% instead of 25%). Or, if she knows a couple of IRL events typically fuel 10% of deals each year, she can intentionally leave that out and rely solely on web traffic—that gives her a buffer for unexpected dips in performance.

Partner with the sales team. Talk regularly! Maybe her analytics show that “direct traffic” drives demos, but sales keeps hearing, “I saw your CEO’s post on LinkedIn” on calls. Her strongest approach is integrated, and led by conversation—I’m talking about adjusting creative, targeting, and messaging for better leads, stronger pipeline, and a better budget. Plus, sales is thrilled when SOMEONE actually LISTENS to them!  
‍

Step 3: Identify repeatable patterns 

You know which channels work. Now, it’s time to figure out which campaigns within those channels made a big difference in your traffic.

Look for traffic/demo spikes in your 2025 analytics, and dive into your calendar—what did you do that week that got attention? Maybe it was a campaign, an event, a report launch, or a partnership. Do some quick math to see how much time and money you spent on those things, then add fuel to what’s already working. 

Let’s get back to Tyler for a sec. When she digs into her 2025 spikes, she sees peaks in March, July, and September: 

In March (92 demo page visits in one week): Her team published long-form SEO content and promoted it to their email subscribers. There were also 3 LinkedIn posts from the CEO sharing key insights. It cost $8K in content production and 20 hours of work, and led to 6 demos and 3 closed deals at $120K. 

In July (67 demo page visits in one week): Tyler co-hosted a webinar with a software partner, which was promoted through email to both companies’ audiences. Promotion cost $2K, and they spent 15 hours on it—it led to 4 demos, 2 of which closed for $80K in revenue. 

In September (41 demo page visits): Tyler’s team published a customer case study, and the CEO posted a LinkedIn thread breaking down the results. That case study was shared with prospective clients. It cost $5K to put together the case study, and 10 hours of work, which led to 3 demos and 1 closed at $40K in revenue. 

Based on what she can see from those spikes, Tyler can put together a 2026 plan that prioritizes demos over all.

‍

Step 4: Match your marketing mix to your business model

Based on your math, you know which GTM motion fits your business model, and where your 2026 budget should go. 

Sales-led growth (SLG) indicators:

  • High ACV ($50K+)
  • Large LTV/CAC ratio (need 3x+)
  • Long sales cycle (~6+ months)
  • Multiple decision-makers, complex buying process

If this sounds like your company, your marketing mix should be high-touch and sales-led with specialized content and ABM (both events and outbound), with the main outcome being that you drive qualified demos. 

The right mix: 60% content + thought leadership, 30% events + ABM, 10% brand.‍

Product-led growth (PLG) indicators:

  • Low ACV (under $10K)
  • Low CAC requirement
  • Credit card purchase, self-serve
  • Short sales cycle (days to weeks)

If this sounds like your company, your marketing mix should be high-volume self-serve with AEO and SEO content, paid ads, and influencer partnerships, with the main outcome being that you drive freemium subscriptions or product signups.

The right mix: 50% performance marketing (ads), 30% content (SEO/AEO), 20% product marketing.

Hybrid model indicators:

  • Mid-market ACV ($10K-$50K)
  • Mix of self-serve and sales-assisted deals

If this sounds like your company, your marketing mix should be a blend of PLG tactics (content, SEO/AEO) with SLG touchpoints (demos, sales enablement),  with the main outcome being that you drive both signups and qualified demos.

The right mix for Tyler: 40% content, 30% demand gen, 20% sales enablement, 10% brand.

If you’re not sure which motion fits your company, look to your buyer journey. 

‍

Defending your 2026 budget 

When it’s time to bring your 2026 budget to leadership, don’t just show a spreadsheet of line items. 

Include everything you’ve calculated and documented over the past four steps. That means the math, historical proof, channel priorities, and your expected CAC. 

When the budget’s grounded in numbers, it’s an easy yes from leadership. 

You need to remind them off the bat, too, that strategy takes time. A 12-month budget pitch framework helps set up an expectation of when revenue will start to come in: Don’t get pressured to pivot in March when leadership asks, "Is the new strategy working?" 

Track leading indicators, like demo bookings, to reassure them that everything’s moving forward if they’re getting antsy. 

You should also set some rules before kicking off the new budget:

  • Don't pivot channel strategy until running it for a period that’s 2x your sales cycle
  • Pour more budget into channels that drive demo page traffic
  • Pause channels that don’t do better after six months of optimization
  • Review the budget quarterly, but only make major changes if the 2x cycle proves something isn't working

Stop stressing over that blank budget template. 

Math is going to get you through this, I promise. 

Defending your budget shouldn’t be a fight at all—it’s a “how-to” guide to get the revenue wheels in motion.

‍

FAQ

How long should I test a marketing channel before deciding if it's working? 

Run any channel for at least 2x your sales cycle before making major decisions. That way, you make sure leads have enough time to move through your entire funnel and close. If you pull the plug too early, you're evaluating before anyone could possibly convert. Track leading indicators like demo bookings and pipeline creation to monitor progress.

What's the difference between homepage traffic and demo page traffic, and why does it matter?

Homepage traffic is a vanity metric—it shows interest, but not intent. Demo page traffic shows where your potential customers are coming from. When you’re building your budget, you should focus specifically on demo or pricing page visits, then calculate the conversion rate from demo page visit to booked demo. That’s where you invest.

What if my business model doesn't fit cleanly into SLG, PLG, or hybrid?

Only use those indicators as a starting point. What really matters is matching your marketing mix to your actual customer behavior: how they buy, how long it takes, and how much support they need. Start with the recommended mix that’s closest to your model, then adjust based on what your funnel math reveals.

‍

Consider your content solved.

What you just read started as one expert interview.

Now it’s a playbook, newsletter content, and 10+ social posts. storyarb builds content flywheels that multiply your best thinking across every channel, consistently.

Learn more
Subscribe to The Standard
By submitting this form, you agree to receive recurring marketing communications from storyarb at the email you provide. To opt out, click unsubscribe at the bottom of our emails. By submitting this form, you also agree to our Terms & Privacy Policy
You're in! Welcome to The Standard!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
hello@storyarb.com
Quick Links
Request a DemoPricingContact
CareersReferralsNewsletter
Privacy PolicySubscription AgreementTerms of Use
Join The Standard
Subscribe to storyarb's free weekly newsletter.
Subscribe
Handwritten by
©2025 storyarb®. All rights reserved.